GammonU OnLineMatch #1

Sa dopuštenjem Kit Woolseya prenosimo poziciju iz online meča (uz njegov komentar) kojeg on igra svakodnevno protiv čitatelja  svoga foruma www.gammonu.com. Doživotno članstvo na siteu je $40. Dobiva se mogućnost sudjelovanja na forumu i sudjelovanje u online meču. 

Ovdje Kit razmišlja da li okrenuti kocku ili ići na gammon i pri tome iznosi glavno pitanje koje trebamo sebi postaviti dok razmišljamo u ovakvim situacijama. Zanemarite kocke na dijagramu. 

If it is 100% impossible for Blue to have a take after the next exchange, then it cannot be wrong to play on. Regardless of how unlikely it is that I can continue all the way to play on for the gammon and then win the gammon, as long as there is zero risk of gaining my market on the next roll then I should play on if a gammon is legally possible. 

Can Blue have a take on the race after the next exchange? I am 32 pips ahead. The most Blue can gain is 21 pips, if I roll 2-1 and Blue rolls 6-6. Will that give Blue a take? No. 11 pips will still put Blue too far behind. Can Blue have a take if I roll something ugly? My ugliest roll must be 5-4, forcing me to break the bar point. If I roll 5-4 and Blue rolls something, will Blue then have a take? No. Blue's hitting chances will improve, but not enough to justify taking. 

The conclusion is that I cannot gain my market on the next exchange. Therefore, it is proper to play on. I will need to go through this analysis at every turn, and if there is any danger of gaining my market on the next exchange I will probably have to cash since my gammon chances are so small. But as long as I can't gain my market, I can play on.